New Delhi (ABC Live): In the wake of COVID-19 and the Ukraine war, global power balances are shifting. China and India have gained considerable economic and geopolitical strength. Consequently, both are positioning themselves as key players in a new multipolar framework often referred to as the emerging New World Order. A Chatham House analysis notes that during India’s 2023 G20 presidency, New Delhi helped secure the African Union’s entry into the G20. This move clearly signaled India’s growing influence among developing nations.

Meanwhile, China continues to push its agenda across Asia and beyond. With booming economies, expanding militaries, and active diplomacy, Beijing and New Delhi are emerging as vital voices in global governance. Therefore, this report examines the key data and trends (2023–25) behind their rise and explores what it means for the Global South, the West, and global institutions in shaping the New World Order.

Economic and Trade Power in the New World Order

Growth Performance Comparison

China’s GDP is projected to reach $19.2 trillion in 2025, ranking it second globally. In comparison, India’s GDP is estimated at $4.2 trillion, placing it fourth. Notably, India grew by 8.2% in FY2023–24, one of the fastest rates globally.

Forecasts for 2024–25 suggest growth between 6% and 6.6%. In contrast, China’s economy is slowing. Analysts estimate its 2024 growth will be closer to 3%.

Bilateral Trade Dynamics

India-China trade hit a record ~$138 billion in 2023–24. For instance, China exported goods worth $120B to India, while Indian exports stood at $18B. As a result, China remains India’s largest trading partner.

Furthermore, Chinese goods dominate India’s imports, especially electronics and machinery.

Global Manufacturing and Services Role

China produces about one-third of the world’s factory output. Meanwhile, India is rising in global industrial output. It also leads in IT and services exports.

However, China remains dominant in consumer electronics and manufacturing.

Geopolitical Influence and Institutions Reshaping the New World Order

Competing Global Platforms

China launched the AIIB and Belt and Road Initiative. Simultaneously, India co-founded BRICS and hosted the 2023 G20 summit. It also helped bring the African Union into the G20, showing leadership in global reforms.

Engagement with the Global South

India focuses on technology and capacity-building in developing countries. Conversely, China invests heavily in infrastructure projects. In 2023, China’s overseas development investment reached $180B. On the other hand, India’s stood at $110B.

Reforming Global Governance

China and India are active in nearly all global institutions. While China holds a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, India is a candidate. Both nations use platforms like BRICS+, SCO, and AIIB to promote new rules and standards for the New World Order.

Military and Security Capabilities

China’s Military Modernization

China’s 2024 defense budget was $314B. Notably, it continues to invest in stealth aircraft, drones, and cyber warfare. Currently, China operates two aircraft carriers and is building a third.

India’s Defense Expansion

India spent $86.1B on defense in 2024. It prioritizes domestic arms production under “Make in India.” Moreover, India has launched its own naval assets and is upgrading military technology.

Strategic Projection and Rivalry

China and India aim to project power across Asia. China focuses on offense and technological advantage. In contrast, India’s upgrades are driven by regional tensions and a push for balance.

Technological and Space Leadership in the New World Order

Telecommunications and Digital Tech

China has over 1B 5G users and 4.2M base stations. By comparison, India completed its 5G rollout in 2024. It is now the second-largest mobile market with 1.18B subscribers.

AI and Semiconductor Race

China plans to lead AI by 2030. At the same time, India is investing $10B in semiconductors. Its private tech sector is also growing rapidly.

Space Ambitions and Breakthroughs

India’s ISRO had major achievements in 2024. These include solar and X-ray missions and its first space docking.

In parallel, China has a space station and has landed rovers on the Moon and Mars.

Implications for Global South, Western Powers, and Governance

South-South Cooperation or Competition?

China offers large infrastructure projects to developing nations. Meanwhile, India provides digital and healthcare innovations. Notably, both countries are expanding ties with Africa and Latin America.

Western Strategic Rebalancing

The U.S. and EU are strengthening ties with India. Through Quad dialogues, trade talks, and security deals, they aim to counterbalance China. In this context, BRICS+ and the AIIB challenge Western-led institutions and contribute to shaping a new New World Order.

Toward Multipolar Global Governance

India and China want more say in institutions like the UN, IMF, and WTO. Consequently, they support parallel platforms such as BRICS+ and SCO. These offer Global South nations new options and rule-making power. Such trends are key components in redefining global governance within the New World Order.

Conclusion

Data and events from recent years show a major shift: China and India are rising global powers. Their influence is expanding through economic strength, military capabilities, technology, and diplomacy.

For the Global South, this offers new alliances. For the West, it raises strategic questions. Ultimately, for global institutions, it demands reform. The future of the New World Order depends on how these two Asian powers navigate cooperation and competition.

Sources: Data and insights are drawn from 2023–2025 reports by IMF, SIPRI, Ministry of Statistics India, and other global institutions and think tanks.

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