As Israeli and U.S. strikes hammer Iranian targets and Iranian drones hit Kyiv, the Iran–Russia alliance reveals deep fractures. Could this axis of defiance soon fall apart?
New (ABC Live): As Israel steps up strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and proxy network, the ripple effects reach far beyond the Middle East. Thousands of kilometres away, Iranian-supplied Shahed drones strike Ukrainian cities. These actions prove that the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, though distant, connect deeply through the Iran–Russia alliance.
? A Coordinated Assault on the Liberal Order
Iran and Russia share a strategic vision: dismantle the U.S.-led liberal order. Iran tries to dominate the Middle East through Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, while Russia attempts to redraw European borders and assert dominance in a multipolar world.
Although they operate in different regions, both regimes benefit from the Iran–Russia alliance—militarily, diplomatically, and ideologically.
? One Drone, Two Fronts
Iranian-made Shahed drones recently struck civilian targets in both Ukraine and Israel. These attacks didn’t occur by accident. Instead, they reflect a deliberate strategy to undermine Western allies using asymmetric warfare.
News outlets now regularly display images of destroyed apartment blocks in Tel Aviv and Kyiv side by side. This visual alignment underscores the shared strategy, tools, and message: authoritarian defiance against the democratic order.
? Shared History, Diverging Futures
The Iran–Russia alliance began long before today’s flashpoints. Over a decade ago, Iran and Russia intervened in Syria to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They provided military backing and coordinated political cover, using Syria as a joint platform to project power and resist the West.
However, Assad’s weakening hold in 2024 disrupted this axis. That collapse not only erased a strategic hub but also removed a staging ground for coordinated operations.
?? Read more on Iran’s drone strategy: Brookings – The Shahed Drone Threat
?? A Fraying Partnership
Now, with Israel and the United States directly targeting Iranian military infrastructure, Russia can offer little more than rhetorical support. Putin’s forces remain bogged down in Ukraine, and his arms factories struggle to meet growing demands.
Iran relied on Russian-supplied air defence systems, but they failed during recent strikes. That failure exposed Tehran to foreign attacks and embarrassed Moscow, whose reputation as a reliable arms supplier continues to erode.
These events reveal an uncomfortable truth: Iran depends on Russia more than Russia can afford to deliver, and Russia faces risks it may no longer wish to carry.
? The United States Reclaims Its Role
The geopolitical calculus shifted dramatically when the United States launched coordinated airstrikes on hardened Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow. U.S. bombers, backed by Israeli intelligence, executed these strikes with precision.
This act signalled renewed American willingness to act, contradicting previous assumptions of U.S. disengagement. Now, Moscow must reconsider its assumptions. If Washington strikes Iran’s most fortified sites, it might also escalate support for Ukraine in unexpected ways.
? Strategic Pressures Mount on Moscow
Russia’s long-term reliance on Iran looks increasingly unstable. Tehran has served not just as an arms supplier but also as a symbol of global resistance to the West. Without Iran, Russia’s narrative of a rising anti-Western coalition collapses.
Moreover, the potential fall of Iran’s regime could trigger psychological aftershocks in Moscow. If Iran’s theocracy—once seen as immovable—can fall, so might Russia’s autocracy. That realisation might push Putin to double down in Ukraine, or force him to pursue a negotiated freeze to lock in current territorial gains.
?? Explore Russia’s arms export struggles: CSIS – The Erosion of Russian Military Prestige
? Russian Arms: Reputation in Decline
The failures of Iran’s Russian-imported air defence systems under U.S. and Israeli attacks delivered another blow to Russia’s defence industry. These same systems had already underperformed in Ukraine, damaging the Kremlin’s standing as a global arms exporter.
Countries that once lined up for Russian weapons now hesitate. With every failed interception, Russia’s military-industrial complex loses credibility.
? One Struggle, Many Fronts
Although Ukraine and the Middle East are separate theatres, the Iran–Russia alliance ties them together. Both regimes push to reshape the world through coercion and instability. Liberal democracies push back with diplomacy, defence, and—now—renewed force.
Kyiv, Tel Aviv, Tehran, and Moscow may lie on different continents, but their fates remain intertwined. And with American hard power back on the table, this fragile Iran–Russia alliance could soon collapse under the weight of its contradictions.
? Benchmarking: Top Competing Content
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Brookings Institute – The Strategic Logic of the Iran–Russia Partnership
https://www.brookings.edu/articles/iran-russia-alliance-analysis -
Council on Foreign Relations – Russia and Iran: Axis of Resistance?
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/iran-russia-relations -
Atlantic Council – The Iran–Russia Relationship Is More Tactical Than Strategic
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs -
The Economist – Why Russia and Iran Need Each Other
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