New Delhi (ABC Live): As the global community prepares for the next wave of climate commitments, the concept of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) stands at the heart of international efforts to combat climate change. Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, countries have periodically updated their NDCs, reflecting growing ambition and evolving scientific understanding. Now, the upcoming NDC 3.0, due by February 2025, marks a critical milestone in the global climate agenda.

This report unpacks the evolution from NDC 1.0 through NDC 2.0 to NDC 3.0, highlights the challenges and opportunities embedded in these commitments, and delves deeply into the pivotal roles of the United States and China, the world’s two largest emitters.

What Are NDCs?

NDCs are the climate action plans countries voluntarily submit under the Paris Agreement, outlining their targets and strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts. They are dynamic documents, updated every five years to reflect increased ambition and changing national circumstances. Learn more on the UNFCCC NDC page.

From NDC 1.0 to NDC 3.0: The Journey of Ambition

• NDC 1.0 (2015-2020): The first wave of commitments primarily targeted limiting global warming to below 2°C. While most countries submitted pledges, many lacked detailed pathways or sector-specific strategies. Global emissions reduction targets were modest — projected at roughly a 3% reduction below 2010 levels by 2030 — insufficient to meet Paris goals. UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2019

• NDC 2.0 (2020-2023): Learning from implementation challenges and scientific advances, countries increased ambition. Global targets shifted closer to the 1.5°C threshold, with emission reduction gaps narrowing from around 25-30% to approximately 15-20% by 2030. Enhanced transparency and sectoral specificity marked this phase. UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2022

• NDC 3.0 (Due February 2025): Driven by the 2023 Global Stocktake, which revealed a persistent emissions gap and insufficient climate finance, NDC 3.0 demands significantly enhanced ambition. Countries are expected to present comprehensive, sector-wise investment plans extending to 2035, with robust financial strategies and transparent monitoring mechanisms to accelerate global climate action. Read the Global Stocktake 2023 report.

Data Snapshot: Progress and Gaps

• Current NDCs have lowered projected global temperature rise from 2.7-3.1°C (NDC 1.0) to roughly 2.4-2.7°C (NDC 2.0).

• The emissions gap remains critical: approximately 8-10 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent annually by 2030, requiring urgent action to align with 1.5°C pathways.

• Climate finance has increased from initial pledges of $100 billion/year to over $600 billion/year but still falls short of the trillions needed for global transitions. Climate Finance Landscape Report

Country Focus: United States and China

United States

The U.S. has experienced a rollercoaster in climate policy. Its initial NDC under the Obama administration targeted a 26-28% reduction below 2005 levels by 2025. Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement during the Trump administration paused federal commitments but not state and city-level actions. With Biden’s return to the Agreement, the U.S. committed to a more ambitious 50-52% reduction by 2030. Details are available in the US NDC submission 2021.

However, political polarization creates uncertainty in implementing these goals fully. Landmark legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act (2022) aims to invest heavily in clean energy, EV infrastructure, and climate resilience. Moreover, non-state actors — states, cities, and businesses — are now integral to achieving NDC targets, with their commitments embedded within national strategies. Learn more about subnational actions on We Are Still In.

China

China remains the world’s largest emitter and a decisive player in the global climate landscape. Its 2016 NDC pledged to peak emissions “around 2030” and increase the share of non-fossil fuels to 20%. In 2020, China ambitiously committed to carbon neutrality by 2060, introducing a complex “transition corridor” requiring rapid emissions decline post-2030. The official NDC is accessible here: China’s NDC Submission 2016.

Implementation challenges include regional economic disparities and continued reliance on coal in heavy industry zones. Nevertheless, China is aggressively investing in renewable technologies, electric vehicles, and launching the world’s largest national carbon market to drive cost-effective emissions cuts. Its NDC intertwines with broader strategic goals, including securing critical mineral supply chains for clean technologies. Details on China’s carbon market can be found at ICAP ETS Map.

Unique Challenges and Innovations in NDCs

• The Ambition–Capability Gap remains a structural challenge, especially for developing countries that depend on external finance and technology.

• NDCs are evolving into living, iterative frameworks adapting to scientific progress and political shifts, as exemplified by the EU’s steady target increases under the European Green Deal.

• Non-state actor engagement is transforming climate governance, expanding the implementation base beyond governments.

• Social equity and climate justice are increasingly embedded in NDCs, highlighting the need for just transitions that protect vulnerable populations.

• The launch of international carbon markets under Paris Article 6 introduces new opportunities and risks, with transparency and environmental integrity paramount. Read more on Article 6 Implementation.

Looking Ahead: The Promise of NDC 3.0

The upcoming NDC 3.0 cycle is arguably the most consequential since Paris. It represents a collective opportunity for countries to align their national pathways with scientific imperatives, foster innovation, mobilise finance, and drive just, inclusive climate transitions.

As the United States and China refine their strategies in this round, their leadership and cooperation will be pivotal in closing the global emissions gap and steering the world toward a safer, sustainable future.

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