New Delhi (ABC Live): The return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency has reignited debates about whether his unpredictable diplomatic style can be sustained. As the Indo-Pacific region becomes the centre of global power struggles—especially with China’s rise—many experts wonder if the United States can maintain its long-term interests amid this volatility.

Trump’s Volatile Diplomacy: A Double-Edged Sword

President Trump’s approach is marked by sudden policy changes, harsh trade measures, and public disputes. Consequently, these moves often disrupt long-standing alliances and partnerships. For example:

• Tariffs on Allies and Rivals: In March 2025, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports, citing unfair trade practices. As a result, these countries retaliated with their own tariffs, worsening economic tensions. (reuters.com)

• Withdrawal from Global Agreements: Early 2025 saw the U.S. exit from the Paris Climate Agreement and the World Health Organisation, citing national sovereignty concerns. This move was widely criticised and diminished U.S. leadership on global issues.

While these actions might bring short-term advantages, they risk damaging the stable international environment necessary for long-term U.S. success.

Past Examples of Strategic Losses Due to Aggressive Diplomacy

• Iran Nuclear Deal Withdrawal (2018): When the U.S. exited the JCPOA, it alienated European allies and pushed Iran closer to China and Russia. Consequently, Western influence in the Middle East declined. (Brookings Institution)

• Trade War with China (2018–2020): The aggressive tariffs on $360 billion of Chinese goods disrupted supply chains and encouraged China’s push for technological independence. Thus, U.S. economic dominance weakened. (U.S. Chamber of Commerce)

• Syria Troop Withdrawal (2018): The sudden pullout created a security gap exploited by adversaries and damaged trust with Kurdish allies. (RAND Corporation)

• NATO Relations Strain: Public criticism of allies led to doubts about U.S. commitment, with some European nations increasing defence spending to reduce reliance on the U.S. (NATO Reports)

The Indo-Pacific: A Strategic Priority

The Indo-Pacific region accounts for over 60% of the world’s GDP and hosts key maritime routes essential for global trade. Therefore, the U.S. has clear interests in:

• Countering China’s military moves in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait

• Strengthening alliances via the Quad (U.S., India, Japan, Australia)

• Promoting a rules-based order and supporting ASEAN’s role in regional peace

Data-Backed Concerns Over Volatility

• Global Favorability Drop: According to Pew Research Centre, U.S. favorability worldwide fell from 63% in 2017 to 31% in 2023, signalling unease with erratic U.S. foreign policy. (pewresearch.org)

• NATO Spending Rise: NATO members increased defence spending from 1.4% to 1.7% of GDP between 2017 and 2022, partly due to doubts over U.S. reliability. (nato.int)

• Trade Disruption: U.S. tariffs hurt over $90 billion in Indo-Pacific trade, slowing regional growth by about 1.2%. (lowyinstitute.org)

These data clearly show how volatility harms trust and stability.

Impact on Alliances and Regional Security

The Quad and other Indo-Pacific partnerships depend on steady U.S. engagement. However, Trump’s unpredictability has:

• Weakened trust, pushing countries like India to diversify partnerships with Russia and China

• Complicated joint military efforts that deter China

• Undermined economic frameworks like the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF)

Economic Consequences of Unpredictability

Trade uncertainties increase costs and disrupt supply chains. As a result, American businesses reduce investment due to the fear of sudden policy changes.

Expert Opinions

Dinesh Singh Rawat, Advocate and Geopolitical writer at ABC Live, stresses:

“Short-term gains from aggressive diplomacy may look tempting, but the long-term damage—weak alliances and economic harm—poses a big risk to U.S. Indo-Pacific interests.” (abclive.in)

Richard Fontaine, CEO of CNAS, notes:

“U.S. foreign policy must preserve core international order pillars, even as rules evolve. Predictability is key.” (cnas.org)

Indo-Pacific Studies Centre analysts argue:

“The Indo-Pacific requires a consistent U.S. approach. Volatility encourages adversaries like China.” (indo-pacificstudiescenter.org)

The Way Forward: Balancing Strength and Stability

Experts recommend:

• Rebuilding trust through reliable policies

• Supporting multilateral alliances like the Quad and the IPEF

• Transparent dialogue to manage China’s rise peacefully

Conclusion

The U.S. stands at a critical point in the Indo-Pacific. Although Trump’s volatile diplomacy may bring short-term wins, the long-term risks are severe. U.S. leadership requires balancing bold actions with steady partnerships. How long America can afford otherwise is uncertain, with major global stakes.

Also, Read

Trump Tariff Diplomacy Tests India–U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy