New Delhi (ABC Live): Modi 2025 Maldives Visit :Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official visit to the Maldives on July 25–26, 2025, marks a pivotal moment in Indo-Maldivian relations. This high-profile visit comes at a time when the diplomatic relationship between the two countries is at a crossroads, following a period of tension and uncertainty after the election of President Mohamed Muizzu in late 2023, whose early tenure was characterised by a tilt towards China and strained ties with India.

The significance of Modi’s visit is amplified by its timing. It coincided with the Maldives’ 60th Independence Day and the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties between India and the Maldives, serving as a powerful symbol of renewed friendship and mutual respect. Furthermore, this visit took place against a backdrop of shifting geopolitical dynamics in the Indian Ocean, rising Chinese influence, and the Maldives’ own internal economic and security challenges.

By choosing to visit the Maldives at this juncture, Prime Minister Modi not only reaffirmed India’s commitment to its close neighbour but also signalled New Delhi’s willingness to reset and strengthen bilateral relations. The visit provided an opportunity to address past grievances, launch new initiatives in trade, security, and development, and re-establish India as the Maldives’ most reliable partner.

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Geographical Importance of the Maldives for India and China

The Maldives is of immense geostrategic significance for both India and China due to its location in the heart of the Indian Ocean. Here’s why:

For India

• Proximity to the Indian Coast: The Maldives lies approximately 700 kilometres southwest of Kerala, India, and is close to the Lakshadweep Islands, making developments there directly relevant to Indian security.

• Control Over Major Sea Lanes: The archipelago sits astride the Eight Degree and One and a Half Degree Channels—crucial shipping lanes carrying nearly 80% of India’s energy imports and a substantial portion of world trade.

• Strategic Buffer: A stable, friendly Maldives acts as a security buffer, keeping unfriendly powers away from India’s maritime borders and reinforcing India’s “Neighbourhood First” and SAGAR (Security and Growth for All in the Region) policies.

For China

• Maritime Silk Road and Influence Projection: The Maldives is a vital node in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, allowing China to expand its commercial and potential military reach in the Indian Ocean through infrastructure projects.

• Strategic Access and Surveillance: Its position allows monitoring of major shipping lanes between the Middle East, Africa, and Asia, and potentially enhances Chinese naval capabilities in the region.

• Countering Indian Dominance: By developing close ties with the Maldives, China seeks to balance Indian influence and establish strategic partnerships in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region.

Summary Table: Geostrategic Value

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Importance of the Maldives for India

The Maldives holds major significance for India across several domains:

1. Strategic Location in the Indian Ocean: As explained above, the Maldives’ location is key for India’s maritime and national security.

2. Balancing Regional Influence: A close relationship helps India counter the growing Chinese presence in its immediate neighbourhood.

3. Maritime and Security Cooperation: The Maldives relies on India as a “first responder” for disasters and security threats, strengthening India’s image as a dependable partner.

4. Economic Ties and Development: India is a major trade partner and a top source of tourists, essential for the Maldivian economy.

5. Cultural and People-to-People Links: Strong historical and social connections foster goodwill and cooperation.

6. Regional Stability: A stable Maldives is vital for the security of South Asia and the broader Indian Ocean region.

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Why President Mohamed Muizzu Was Forced to Backtrack from His “India Out” Policy

When President Mohamed Muizzu took office in late 2023, he adopted a strong “India Out” stance, seeking to reduce Indian military and developmental presence and signalling a tilt towards China. However, by mid-2025, several factors compelled him to recalibrate and restore engagement with India:

• Economic Vulnerabilities: The Maldives depends heavily on tourism (with over 15% of arrivals from India) and on Indian aid, credit lines, and essential supplies. Following anti-India rhetoric, there was a noticeable drop in Indian tourist arrivals and delays in development projects, putting pressure on the economy (Statista, Reuters).

• Strategic and Security Realities: India’s proximity and rapid response capability (in medical, disaster, or security crises) are irreplaceable. Increased Chinese presence did not compensate for the practical advantages of Indian support.

• Public and Political Pressure: Business communities, opposition parties, and coalition partners raised concerns about the economic fallout and strategic risks of alienating India, leading to declining domestic support for the “India Out” campaign.

• Debt and Financial Constraints: The Maldives faced a mounting debt crisis (public debt at 134% of GDP in 2025) and needed Indian debt relief and financial support to stabilise its economy (Reuters).

• Regional and International Reputation: Regional organisations and international partners encouraged a more balanced foreign policy, warning of the risks associated with overdependence on a single external power.

In summary:
President Muizzu’s government recognised that antagonising India was unsustainable for the Maldives’ economy, security, and political stability. The pragmatic shift back to cooperation with India reflected the country’s core national interests and the realities of its strategic environment.

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Key Highlights of the 2025 Visit

• Modi was received with a grand ceremonial welcome and attended the 60th Independence Day as the Guest of Honour.

• Both leaders emphasised historical, cultural, and strategic ties and signalled a diplomatic reset.

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Agreements and Initiatives Announced

• $565 million Line of Credit for infrastructure and defence projects, with ~40% debt relief (Reuters).

• Launch of FTA and investment treaty talks to boost trade and economic cooperation.

• Inauguration of Indian-supported projects: defence HQ, social housing, and digital payment rollout (UPI).

• Enhanced cooperation in security, anti-drug trafficking, and counter-terrorism.

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Data Analysis: Key Metrics in Indo?Maldives Relations

• Trade: India’s exports to the Maldives reached $825 million in 2024 (Trading Economics).

• Tourism: 2 million tourists visited the Maldives in 2024; over 15% were Indian (Statista).

• People-to-People: About 29,000 Indians reside in the Maldives (Wikipedia).

• Digital Payments: UPI launched in 2024 and was rapidly adopted.

• Security: 15+ joint exercises since 2018; $50 million treasury bill rolled over in 2025.

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How Can the Maldives Balance India and China?

1. Pursue a “Multi-Vectored” Foreign Policy: Engage both powers based on national interest.

2. Prioritise Transparency: Ensure all foreign projects are subject to open scrutiny.

3. Strengthen Regional Ties: Work closely with neighbours and in multilateral forums.

4. No Foreign Military Bases: Maintain a neutral security policy.

5. Diversify Economy: Attract investment from multiple partners, not just India or China.

6. Public Diplomacy: Keep citizens informed, promote national interests first.

7. Small State Diplomacy: Negotiate from a position of strategic value.

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Comparative Analysis: Lessons from Other Indian Ocean States

• Sri Lanka: Over-reliance on Chinese loans led to debt distress and loss of sovereignty over Hambantota Port. Now seeking diversified partners and more transparency (Reuters).

• Seychelles: Accepts aid from both India and China but prohibits foreign military bases, maintaining neutrality (The Diplomat).

• Mauritius: Diversifies investment and participates in regional diplomacy, maintaining economic stability and independence.

Key Lessons for Maldives:

• Emphasise transparency, diversify partnerships, maintain sovereignty, and use regional forums to bolster negotiating power.

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Strategic and Bilateral Impact

The diplomatic reset following Modi’s visit has led to stronger economic ties, enhanced digital and defence cooperation, and a renewed commitment to partnership. The Maldives’ ability to balance India and China, while learning from regional examples, is crucial for its long-term stability and prosperity.

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Conclusion on Modi’s 2025 Maldives Visit

Prime Minister Modi’s 2025 Maldives Visit to the Maldives is a landmark in Indo-Maldivian ties, reinforcing India’s role as the Maldives’ primary partner while respecting its sovereignty. With both India and China keenly interested in the Maldives for geographical and strategic reasons, the Maldives’ careful, independent, and transparent approach to foreign relations will determine its future security and development.

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Citations and Further Reading:

• Reuters: India to extend $565 mln line of credit to Maldives

• Statista: Tourist Arrivals by Country

• Wikipedia: India–Maldives relations

• The Diplomat: Seychelles and Foreign Military Bases

• Trading Economics: India Exports to Maldives

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