The India–UK Free Trade Agreement, signed in July 2025, marks a historic economic partnership—but its success hinges on more than tariffs. This investigative report by ABC Live uncovers how India linked trade diplomacy to the UK’s handling of Khalistani extremism and fugitive extradition. With intelligence operations, diplomatic pressure, and national pride at play, this is the untold story behind the deal that reshaped bilateral ties.
New Delhi (ABC Live): The India–UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA), signed on 24 July 2025, is a historic step in global trade diplomacy. It promises increased market access, removal of tariffs, and deeper bilateral cooperation between two vibrant democracies. However, India has made it clear that the FTA’s success will not be judged solely on economic parameters.
According to Indian diplomatic sources and legal experts, the future of the India–UK FTA depends on how the UK handles Khalistani separatist movements and the pending extradition of fugitives like Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi.
?? What the India–UK FTA Offers
Key Highlights:
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Signed by: PM Narendra Modi and PM Keir Starmer at Chequers
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Indian Gains: 99% tariff-free access to UK markets; benefits to textiles, MSMEs, pharma, IT
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UK Gains: Increased access to Indian markets in automobiles, whisky, legal and financial services
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Trade Projections: £25.5 billion increase in trade and £4.8 billion annual GDP boost for the UK by 2040
Despite these benefits, India has signalled a clear red line: no trade partnership is complete without national security and legal reciprocity.
? Khalistani Protests in the UK: A Serious Concern
Timeline of Incidents
| Date | Incident |
|---|---|
| 19 March 2023 | Indian tricolour pulled down by Khalistani protestors at the London High Commission |
| 2024–2025 | Pro-Khalistan graffiti and disruption of Indian events in Leicester, Birmingham |
| April 2025 | Anti-India slogans raised during a diaspora event in Southall |
India’s Position
India has officially demanded:
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Crackdown on extremist diaspora networks
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Audit of foreign-funded UK NGOs spreading anti-India propaganda
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Prosecution of protestors involved in vandalism and hate speech
“The success of the India–UK FTA is deeply linked to the UK’s ability to regulate violent separatism masquerading as free speech,” said Dinesh Singh Rawat, Practising Advocate and Senior Geopolitical Analyst at ABC Live.
?? Extradition Deadlocks: Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi
Status of Key Fugitives
| Fugitive | Charges | Extradition Status |
|---|---|---|
| Vijay Mallya | ?9,000 crore loan default | Extradition approved (2019); asylum pending |
| Nirav Modi | ?13,000 crore PNB scam | Extradition cleared (2022); appeal pending before ECHR |
India has repeatedly flagged the delay in enforcing approved extraditions as a betrayal of trust. These cases are now central to India’s assessment of the UK’s commitment to fair legal cooperation.
“If Britain wants to benefit from Indian markets, it must stop sheltering India’s most-wanted economic fugitives,” added Rawat.
? Data Analysis: Trade vs. Trust
Bilateral Trade Overview
| Year | Total Trade Value | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| FY 2022–23 | $21.3 billion | — |
| FY 2023–24 | $24.0 billion | +13% |
| FY 2025–26 (Projected) | $30.2 billion | +25% |
Diaspora Extremism Intelligence (Unofficial Estimates)
| Metric | Estimate |
|---|---|
| Active UK-based Khalistani NGOs | 18 |
| Radical Telegram/WhatsApp groups | 62 |
| Suspected online influencers | 31 |
| Crypto-linked extremist funding | $3.2 million |
? Strategic Risk Matrix
| Risk Area | Current Status | Impact on FTA |
|---|---|---|
| Khalistani Extremism | Unchecked | HIGH |
| Fugitives’ Extradition | Unresolved | HIGH |
| Public Sentiment in India | Fragile | HIGH |
| Cybersecurity Cooperation | Developing | Medium |
? Expert Comments – Dinesh Singh Rawat
“The India–UK FTA was not signed in a vacuum. It reflects India’s evolving trade philosophy—where market access must align with national dignity,”
says Dinesh Singh Rawat, Practising Advocate and Senior Geopolitical Analyst. “If the UK continues treating Khalistani extremism as protected speech and drags its feet on extraditions, India may weaponize trade leverage. This is not economic nationalism—it’s strategic reciprocity.”
? What India Expects from the UK
- Time-bound extradition of Vijay Mallya and Nirav Modi.
- Criminal prosecution of those involved in desecration and hate propaganda.
- Intelligence-sharing on digital extremism and financial flows.
- Audit and regulation of radical NGOs.
- Public political distancing from fringe separatist groups.
? Conclusion: Sovereignty Is the New Tariff
India has signed the FTA in good faith, but the Modi government has made it clear—there will be no blind faith. The success of this agreement depends on Britain treating India not just as a trading partner, but as a sovereign equal.
“Without reciprocal action, India–UK trade will remain vulnerable to distrust,” concludes Rawat.
“The message is clear: no trade without trust. No diplomacy without dignity.”
? Recommended References
Also, Read ABC Live Reports on India-UK FTA
