Explained: How India Can Secure Its Energy Future (2025–2070)

In ABC Research
September 19, 2025
Team ABC
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India stands at an energy crossroads. With coal still dominant, renewables scaling fast, and nuclear anchored by Kazakhstan’s uranium, India energy security future must balance cost, reliability, and geopolitics. ABC Live’s performance audit explains how a renewables-first, nuclear-stabilised grid can power the country to Net Zero 2070.

New Delhi (ABC Live): September 2025 marks a decisive moment in India’s energy debate. The country has already achieved the halfway mark in its 500 GW non-fossil capacity target for 2030. At the same time, India has emerged as the world’s third-largest energy consumer, with demand expected to triple by 2050.

Because of the Ukraine war, oil price volatility, and climate risks, energy security is now a matter of sovereignty. Therefore, ABC Live is publishing this performance audit to assess how India’s energy security future can be designed on four pillars: speed, cost, reliability, and geopolitics.

Current Snapshot: India’s Energy Mix

India’s present system highlights the challenge:

Coal: ~70% of power generation.
Renewables: ~180 GW capacity, ~43% of installed capacity.
Nuclear: ~7 GW, expanding to 22.4 GW by 2031.
Oil & Gas: ~85% import dependent.

Clearly, renewables are scaling fast, coal remains dominant, and nuclear still plays a modest yet strategic role.

Renewables: Winning on Cost and Speed

Renewables already form the backbone of India’s energy security future. Solar tariffs in India average ?2.8–3.2/kWh, among the lowest in the world. In addition, projects can be built in just 12–18 months, which allows capacity to expand at record speed.

Battery storage costs have fallen by 93% since 2010, making renewable firming increasingly affordable. Therefore, India can realistically harness 750 GW of solar and 300+ GW of wind potential. Nevertheless, renewables are intermittent, and without storage and grid upgrades, they cannot fully shoulder baseload requirements.

Nuclear: Stability for a Net Zero Grid

Nuclear energy is slower and more expensive to deploy, yet it remains essential for grid stability. India will expand its capacity from 7 GW to 22.4 GW by 2031, through projects such as Kudankulam (Russia), Jaitapur (France), and PFBR (India’s own design).

Although nuclear cannot rival renewables in speed, it anchors reliability. Consequently, it provides clean baseload power that industries, cities, and data centres demand. Moreover, nuclear power depends on uranium, and Kazakhstan is now India’s largest supplier, covering over 50% of imports. This makes uranium a vital cornerstone of India’s energy security future.

Kazakhstan’s Role in India Energy Security Future

Kazakhstan produces nearly 40% of global uranium and has been a steady supplier to India since 2009. In 2015, a major agreement secured 5,000 tonnes of uranium for NPCIL reactors. Unlike oil, uranium supply chains are less exposed to Russian pipelines and sanctions.

Therefore, Kazakhstan does not replace Russia but supplements it, giving India fuel diversity and strategic autonomy. By locking long-term uranium contracts with Kazakhstan, India insulates its nuclear programme from global shocks.

Risks to India’s Energy Security Future

India faces multiple risks that cannot be ignored:

Coal dependence — Rising pollution and stranded asset risk.
Oil vulnerability — 85% import reliance exposes India to Middle East volatility.
Renewables intermittency — Without storage and grid balancing, risk of instability.
Nuclear bottlenecks — High CAPEX, public resistance, and long build times.
Critical minerals dependence — Lithium, cobalt, and nickel are controlled by a few countries.

Solutions: ABC Live Performance Audit Recommendations

2025–2030: Win on Speed, Secure Fuel

Add 40–50 GW of renewables annually, paired with storage.
Expand Strategic Petroleum Reserves to cover 90 days of imports.
Extend long-term uranium contracts with Kazakhstan; build multi-year reserves.
Pilot two SMRs for industrial clusters and coastal hydrogen hubs.

2030–2040: Build the Firm, Clean Backbone

Commission the nuclear pipeline (~22 GW).
Scale pumped hydro and advanced storage systems.
Electrify transport, agriculture pumps, and low-heat industry.
Introduce capacity markets to reward reliability and flexibility.

2040–2070: Lock in Net Zero Grid

Achieve a realistic mix: 60–70% renewables, 8–10% nuclear, and the rest hydro, storage, and peaking gas.
Ensure domestic clean-tech manufacturing covers >70% demand.
Position India as a green hydrogen exporter and a central player in Eurasian uranium supply chains.

Global Comparisons for Perspective

China: Targets 200 GW nuclear + 1,200 GW renewables by 2050.
France: Nuclear provides ~70% of electricity.
USA: Balanced 20% nuclear and rapid renewable growth.
India: Poised to be renewables-first, nuclear-stabilised — a distinctive model.

Conclusion: Designing a Secure Energy Future

India will not secure its energy future by choosing between nuclear and renewables. Instead, it must pursue a balanced, diversified, and resilient mix.

Renewables will deliver speed and scale.
Nuclear, backed by Kazakhstan’s uranium, will guarantee stability.
Hydro and storage will balance intermittency.
Critical minerals and diplomacy will provide resilience.

? Viable Conclusion: India should pursue a renewables-first grid, anchored by 8–10% nuclear by 2050, with Kazakhstan’s uranium as the bedrock of stability in its Net Zero journey.

? Sources (URLs)

? Editor’s Note (ABC Research Team)

This performance audit is unique because it links three strands often ignored in mainstream commentary:

Kazakhstan’s uranium role which stabilises India’s nuclear future.
Performance metrics, such as the halfway mark of 500 GW non-fossil by 2030 and nuclear’s rise to 22 GW by 2031.
Geopolitical framing, where energy choices connect to corridors like INSTC and partners like Russia, Kazakhstan, and France.

By combining data, geopolitics, and future mix design, this report provides an original roadmap for India energy security future.

— ABC Research Team

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