New Delhi (ABC Live): On 17 September 2025, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the landmark Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact, formally known as the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement. The pact declares that any attack on one state will be treated as an attack on both. For Riyadh, this is the boldest military alignment in decades; for Islamabad, it is rare diplomatic recognition amid economic strain.

For India, however, the Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact raises new strategic questions. New Delhi has cultivated close ties with Saudi Arabia through energy, investment, and security cooperation. Yet Riyadh’s renewed embrace of Pakistan — especially with hints of a nuclear dimension — complicates India’s Gulf calculus.

Why ABC Live Is Publishing on the Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact Now

This agreement comes at a critical moment:

• India has invested heavily in energy security and Vision 2030 partnerships with Saudi Arabia.
• Pakistan remains India’s primary security adversary, relying on terrorism and military brinkmanship.
• Gulf states increasingly doubt the U.S. security guarantee, pushing Saudi Arabia to seek new alignments.

ABC Live is publishing this analysis now to provide readers with a data-driven, comparative perspective on how the Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact reshapes Riyadh’s ties with both India and Pakistan.

How This Report Is Unique

Mainstream coverage has emphasised either the nuclear rhetoric or the symbolism of Riyadh’s first formal pact with Islamabad. ABC Live goes further by offering:

1. A Comparative Risk–Benefit Matrix of Saudi relations with India and Pakistan.
2. Data Analysis of trade, remittances, energy flows, and financing.
3. A Policy Roadmap for India, grounded in economic and security realities.
4. An Iran Dimension, including an escalation framework to show how the Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact might play out in a U.S.–Iran crisis.

Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact: Comparative Risk–Benefit Matrix

Data Insights

• Trade asymmetry: India’s USD 18.3 bn trade deficit highlights energy dependence but also makes Riyadh reliant on India as a stable buyer. Pakistan’s USD 2.9 bn deficit underscores financial vulnerability.
• Energy dependence: India sources nearly one-fifth of its crude from Saudi Arabia. Pakistan relies heavily on deferred oil payments and Saudi aid, making it more vulnerable.
• Financial flows: Riyadh is set to be Pakistan’s largest external financier in FY 2025–26. Indian ties, however, are anchored in long-term FDI and labour exports.
• Labour diplomacy: Both Indian and Pakistani remittances (USD 10 bn+ and billions respectively) give Riyadh subtle leverage.

Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact and Iran: A Deterrent Signal?

Many analysts interpret the Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact as a message to Iran, but the evidence suggests that it is aimed at deterrence rather than a war plan.

• Saudi objective: Strengthen security amid Iranian proxy threats and doubts about U.S. backing.
• Pakistani caution: Islamabad calls the pact defensive, wary of alienating Tehran, given their shared border and Shia population.
• Operational ambiguity: Nuclear rhetoric is symbolic — a signal to Iran without committing to proliferation.

ABC Live Editorial Note

The Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact is best seen as a deterrent message to Iran, not a battle plan. Riyadh gains psychological assurance by aligning with a nuclear-armed Muslim partner, while Islamabad maintains ambiguity. Pakistan’s border sensitivities, sectarian balance, and internal constraints make offensive action against Iran highly unlikely, unless triggered by a direct strike on Saudi territory.

Trigger Framework: Escalation Scenarios

• Level 1 – Proxy Pressure: Iran continues proxy harassment (Houthi missiles, militia strikes).
  ? Pakistan provides political cover but avoids combat.
• Level 2 – Direct Strikes: Iran attacks Saudi oil facilities or territory.
  ? Riyadh presses Islamabad for advisors, logistics, and nuclear deterrence rhetoric.
• Level 3 – Regional War: A U.S.–Iran conflict escalates in the Gulf.
  ? Pakistan faces pressure to align militarily but risks destabilisation at home.

India’s Policy Options After the Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact

1. Energy diversification: Reduce ~18% reliance on Saudi crude; expand imports from UAE, U.S., Russia, Africa.
2. Boost exports: Expand agriculture, pharma, and engineering goods to narrow the USD 18 bn deficit.
3. Engage Vision 2030 deeply: Invest in Saudi mega-projects (NEOM, green hydrogen) to remain indispensable.
4. Alternative Gulf ties: Strengthen partnerships with the UAE and Iran to balance Saudi shifts.
5. Security hedging: Expand trilateral cooperation with the U.S., Israel and the UAE–France to counterbalance.

Conclusion

The Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact injects uncertainty into India–Saudi relations but does not erase India’s economic and strategic weight. Riyadh is likely to balance: Pakistan for defence symbolism, India for growth and technology.

For New Delhi, the challenge is to convert economic interdependence into leverage, while diversifying energy sources and hedging with other Gulf partners. The Iran dimension shows the pact is more about deterrence signalling than operational war — but it still raises the stakes for India’s Gulf diplomacy.

Sources

• Reuters: Saudi Arabia, nuclear-armed Pakistan sign defence pact
• AP News: Pakistan says nuclear program can be made available to Saudi Arabia
• FT: Saudi Arabia signs ‘strategic mutual defence’ pact with Pakistan
• IBEF: India–Saudi Arabia trade
• FPCCI: Pakistan–Saudi trade report
• The Electricity Hub: Saudi Arabia to lead Pakistan’s external financing FY 2025–26
• Al Jazeera: How Saudi–Pakistan Defence Pact reshapes geopolitics

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