Explained: Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board Judicial Predictability

In India
October 2, 2025
Satish Bhasin
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Nine years after its inception, the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) remains at the heart of India’s insolvency reforms. This ABC Live report reviews IBBI’s performance, introduces the Judicial Predictability Index (JPI), and assesses the challenges and reforms needed to make India’s insolvency regime globally competitive.

New Delhi (ABC Lie): The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India (IBBI) is the key regulator of India’s insolvency ecosystem. Created in 2016 under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC), it oversees insolvency professionals, sets regulatory standards, and drives reforms aimed at timely and value-maximising resolutions.

In just nine years, the IBC has become India’s most transformative corporate law reform. Creditors have realised over ?3.2 lakh crore, and financial discipline has improved across the banking sector. Yet, challenges remain: delayed resolutions, modest recovery rates, and inconsistent judicial outcomes continue to undermine its effectiveness.

To measure this, ABC Live introduces the Judicial Predictability Index (JPI) — a first-of-its-kind metric assessing how predictable, consistent, and enforceable insolvency outcomes in India really are. As the proposed IBC (Amendment) Bill, 2025 promises the next phase of reform, this report evaluates the performance of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India and the road ahead.

1. Genesis of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India

Established: October 1, 2016, under the IBC, 2016.
Mandate: Regulates the insolvency of corporations, partnerships, and individuals.
Objective: Ensure time-bound resolutions, maximise asset value, and balance stakeholder interests.

2. IBC in Numbers (2016–2025)

Category	Data (approx.)	Source
Cases admitted	~7,500	IBBI / MCA
Cases resolved	~2,100	IBBI
Liquidations ordered	~1,500	IBBI
Realisation by creditors	~?3.2 lakh crore	IBBI / RBI
Avg recovery rate	32–36%	IBBI
Avg resolution time	400–440 days	NCLT Data

Interpretation:

Only 28% of cases resolve.
Recoveries (32–36%) exceed pre-IBC levels (<20%) but fall short of global standards.
Resolution times (400+ days) breach the statutory 330-day limit, eroding confidence.

3. Judicial Predictability Index (JPI)

ABC Live’s Judicial Predictability Index (JPI) measures insolvency outcome predictability using five weighted pillars.

Pillar	Weight	India 2025 Score	Key Insight
Timeliness (TS)	25%	76	Resolutions average 462 days vs 330-day cap
Reversal & Remand (RRS)	25%	80	25–30% of NCLT orders reversed/remanded
Precedent Adherence (PAS)	20%	68	Inconsistent application of SC/NCLAT precedents
Enforcement Finality (EFS)	20%	58	42% of approved plans face >90-day litigation
Reasoned Orders (RTS)	10%	72	Mixed citation and reasoning quality

Composite JPI (2025 Baseline): ~71.5

Band: Predictable (70–84)
Meaning: The system is functional but lacks consistency and finality.

4. Bench-Wise and Sector-Wise JPI

Bench-Wise Heatmap (Illustrative Q1 FY 2025–26)

NCLT Bench	TS	RRS	PAS	EFS	RTS	JPI	Remarks
Delhi	80	78	65	55	70	70.5	Infra cases delayed
Mumbai	82	84	72	62	76	75.3	Strong precedent use
Kolkata	76	79	68	52	72	69.2	High reversal rates
Chennai	79	82	70	60	73	72.0	Balanced
Ahmedabad	81	83	69	64	75	74.4	Good timelines

Sector-Wise JPI

Sector	Avg Resolution Days	Recovery %	JPI	Note
Manufacturing	360	38%	74	Relatively stronger
Real Estate	520	22%	61	Weakest predictability
Infrastructure	500	28%	64	Appeal-heavy delays
MSMEs/Services	400	30%	68	Moderate

5. Global Benchmark

Country	Avg Recovery	Resolution Time	JPI Equivalent	Band
US (Chapter 11)	~70%	18–24 months	~90	Highly Predictable
UK	~65%	12–18 months	~82	Predictable+
Singapore	~55%	15–20 months	~78	Predictable
India (2025)	32–36%	400+ days	~71.5	Predictable (low band)

6. Reform Agenda — IBC (Amendment) Bill, 2025

Timely Resolution: Stricter enforcement of 330-day cap.
Operational Efficiency: MSME-specific resolution processes.
Transparency: Stronger disclosure norms for CoCs and RPs.
Cross-Border Insolvency: Likely adoption of UNCITRAL Model Law.
Technology Integration: Mandatory e-filing and digital dashboards.

7. Performance Scorecard (2016–2025)

Dimension	Status	Gap/Challenge
Resolution Timelines	Avg 400+ days	Judicial backlog
Recovery Rates	32–36%	Below global benchmarks
Institutional Capacity	4,000 IPs, 6,000 valuers	Adequate, but NCLTs overstretched
Stakeholder Consultations	90+ discussion papers	Needs faster adoption
Cross-Border Insolvency	Not adopted	Urgent reform pending
Judicial Predictability	JPI ~71.5	Moderate, uneven across benches

Why This ABC Live Report is Unique

Beyond Events: Goes past Annual Day speeches into a nine-year audit of IBBI.
New Metric (JPI): First-ever Judicial Predictability Index for India’s insolvency framework.
Granular Insights: Provides bench-wise and sector-wise predictability heatmaps.
Global Lens: Benchmarks India against the US, UK, and Singapore insolvency regimes.
Forward-Looking: Links analysis to the IBC Amendment Bill, 2025 as a policy roadmap.

Conclusion

The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India has reshaped India’s insolvency landscape, achieving significant progress in recoveries and creditor confidence. Yet, a JPI of ~71.5 shows that judicial predictability is still moderate, not robust. For India to become a global restructuring hub, the IBC Amendment Bill, 2025, must deliver on timeliness, transparency, and cross-border readiness.